1,000 Ways Not To Build A Light Bulb

Part of the reason I’ve been intermittently posting over the last few days is that we’ve had some issues with a piece of equipment at work. Sparing you a lot of boring technical minutiae, I’ll just say that some planned upgrades to it haven’t exactly worked as intended, and troubleshooting has been tedious. In short, to borrow from the title quote (attributed to Thomas Edison), it seems we’ve found a thousand ways not to do it.

That seemed to be one of the themes of tonight’s State of the Union address.

For the record, I have become a fan of the old way of delivering the State of the Union… the way Thomas Jefferson used to, via courier. I think restoring that tradition would remove a lot of the rhetoric and just get to the issues. Tonight’s, in particular, would have been better off not live, since it was one of his more unflattering speeches.

But, to get back to the theme of this post, it seemed as though this speech was a step backward for him. It was a long speech, but somewhat disjointed and without much substance. It almost hearkened back to the lofty, yet empty, rhetoric of some of his campaign speeches. That can only mean one thing: it was written quickly, because the administration, in essence, suddenly realized it had found a thousand ways not to govern this country effectively.

I would spend time dissecting the facts- real and imagined- presented tonight, but I have to get up early tomorrow to find a way to build that light bulb. I’ll wrap this up by saying that, based on the speech tonight, I don’t believe the Obama administration has any light bulbs in its future.

Are You Smarter Than A 6th Grader?

Catching up from the past several days…

So everyone… including Jon Stewart… is making fun of President Obama bringing his teleprompter with him during a visit to a 6th grade class in Virginia. The implication is that he is so concerned about appearing cerebral that he had to rely on what has become his security blanket. I think it’s just further verification that he’s been speaking to all of us as if we were kids…

Of course, he’s going to be using that teleprompter extensively tomorrow during his first State of the Union address. The speech has likely been extensively rewritten since the election of Scott Brown to fill the vacant Senate seat from MASSACHUSETTES (intentional misspelling poking fun at Massachusetts Attorney General and Senate runner-up Martha Coakley). The big question now is whether the speech will mark a Bill Clinton-like transition to governing from the center or an all-out fight to continue pulling to the left, especially on the issue of healthcare reform…

Speaking of tomorrow night, what are the odds that news networks covering the speech will have extra cameras on hand, looking for the next outburst a la Joe Wilson?

I was debating liveblogging the speech, and I may still do it, but the last few days have been really long and tiring. I don’t know if I could stay awake for the whole speech. I’ll probably have a quick reaction to it, hopefully the same night.

And, hopefully, he’ll finally start talking to us as caring, thinking, voting adults.

Nothing To See Here…

I had planned on a lengthy “catch-up” post today, but a long day at work will postpone that until at least tomorrow.

Breakdown

Now that the dust is settling from Scott Brown’s victory yesterday, I’ve got a few thoughts to add to the analytical stew:

1. Massachusetts may not be as liberal as we think. That sounds like a no-brainer at this point, but I think at least part of this upset could (should?) have been predicted much earlier. Flashback to the 2008 Democratic primaries: Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, and Deval Patrick all endorsed far-left candidate Barack Obama. Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly chose the more centrist Hillary Clinton. That in itself doesn’t put the state in play for Republicans, but it does indicate that Massachusetts may belong to a more moderate breed of Democrats.

2. The timing of Brown’s surge seems to correlate to the series of midnight/weekend/holiday voting (and vote buying) on the healthcare legislation in the House and Senate. Given open debate and honest politicking, Massachusetts voters may have been willing to support it by electing Martha Coakley. Even they are furious with the way it’s been done thus far.

3. This may be an indication of another 1994-style Republican takeover brewing. Or, it could be the best thing to happen to Democrats. It’s up to them. If Coakley had won, the healthcare takeover would have been a sure thing, and the voter ire we saw in Massachusetts would have boiled over nationwide, assuring a repeat of 1994. If Democrats are sincere about revisiting the product and the process, they may be able to turn the boil into a simmer and have a greater chance of retaining control of one or both houses in November.

4. Republicans are looking for ways to replicate Brown’s victory this November. This scares me. Seriously, I’m going to have nightmares about hundreds of wannabe candidates buying pickup trucks for their upcoming campaigns. The GOP is a lot like the music industry in that, if they find something that works once, they figure it will work a thousand times, so they try to replicate it in cookie-cutter fashion. There are lessons that can be learned and tactics that can be adopted (with some tweaking), but the end results will have to be organic to be successful.

5. The NFL Championships are this weekend, and here are my picks: Colts over Jets, 31-17; Saints over Vikings, 27-24.

Gonna Party Like It’s 1994?

I’m watching the news analysis from the stunning results of the Massachusetts special election. Scott Brown won. Now, we have to figure out what it means, and where we go from here. We’ll have time to cover all of that after the dust settles. There’s still the question of when Brown will be seated, and whether it will be before Obamacare can be rushed through the Senate.

The main question on everyone’s mind is whether this is an omen of how things will play out in November. Is this a Contract With America away from being another 1994? It’s early yet, but I would guess a number of high-profile Democrats will be scrutinizing their reelection chances in the next few weeks.

Oh, this now means President Obama has won one out of three elections in Massachusetts. He lost the primary to Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primaries (even with the endorsements of Sens. Kennedy and Kerry and Gov. Patrick), he carried the state handily in the 2008 general election, and now he lost this race by proxy through his endorsement and campaign appearance. I say again, if his agenda doesn’t play well in Massachusetts, how is it being received in the rest of the country?

Three Out Of Four?

Well, after missing three out of four picks last weekend (but missing the one I really wanted to miss), I got three out of four this weekend (but missing the one I really wanted to get). The Cards had a good season, but this was just one game they weren’t going to win…

Speaking of three out of four, the Massachusetts Senate special election could- if Scott Brown wins- give Republicans three out of four wins in the major elections held recently. Things seem to be trending that direction, too. In addition to recent polls giving Brown the lead over Democrat Martha Coakley, the race got close enough that President Obama made a trip to the state to stump for her. That alone should tell you not only what the stakes are, but how badly things may turn out for Coakley.

Of course, betting on elections is a crime, but I think the smart money says Brown pulls off the upset on Tuesday.

Catching Up

Before I get to today’s topics, let me apologize for missing a few days. Things got really busy at work, I had to make an unplanned trip to Sierra Vista after work on Thursday, and then I went to the ranch Friday after work. More on that later…

First, I’m going to admit it. I’m eating crow right now after the Cardinals’ humiliating loss to the Saints. Or, I might be eating Raven, depending on how the late game goes tonight…

The trip to the ranch Friday was prompted by a report of a downed fence. Sure enough, the fence had been cut, all four strands, right at a corner post, which opened up three pastures to each other, including one on the neighboring ranch. Fortunately, I’ve gotten good at fixing fence, since by this time the sun was going down (the ranch is over 5000′ elevation, so it was getting cold), and I was about two miles from the Mexican border (on the northeast side of the ranch; much of it, including the headquarters, is closer to the border). Of course, the proximity to the border explains the reason for the fence being down. It also explains the fact that Border Patrol was out in force around sundown when I was finally back on my way home. Both illegal immigration and drug smuggling seem to be increasing in the valley, and this time of year is when things really start heating up on the border…

Of course, the two big news items are the earthquake in Haiti and the Massachusetts special election. And so…

Starting with the special election, all I can say is this is huge. Forget the outcome on Tuesday (although recent polls show Republican Scott Brown leading Democrat Martha Coakley just a few days out). The real story here is how we got to the point where a Democrat president has to make a campaign visit to Massachusetts… MASSACHUSETTS… to get a fellow Democrat elected. Whether it’s Obamacare or just the Democrats’ general mismanagement of the country causing it, one thing is blindingly obvious: if the Democrats can’t sell it in Kennedyland, mainstream America definitely won’t buy it. If they can’t ride their 2008 electoral momentum into the 2009 gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey… NEW JERSEY… and face serious special election challenges in New York and Massachusetts, then the 2010 elections may look brighter for the Republicans than even I’m willing to hope for. The only question is whether the GOP puts up more candidates like Scott Brown, Chris Christie, and Bob McDonnell, or whether they run more like Dede Scozzafava. This election- at least from this far out- seems to hinge on a theme of fiscal conservatism; voting records can and will be used against you.

Getting around to Haiti- or what’s left of it. That sounds cold, I realize, and I certainly don’t want to minimize the suffering. Of course, they’ve been suffering for years under a series of political disasters, which makes their response to this natural disaster so disturbing. It seems like everyone is requesting- no, expecting- international aid for their relief. I’m not suggesting they’re out of place for asking for help, but treating it as an expectation is endemic of a society that seems to survive solely on international benevolence. Of course, international benevolence usually implies American benevolence, and we are certainly shouldering the load once more (and here’s where I point out that the international community welcomes American hegemony when we’re coming with open wallets). But charity is fleeting, and donations won’t flow into the country indefinitely. Aid will be administered by outside agencies (and governments) to get the Haitian people through this crisis, but we should find a way to use this as a “teach a man to fish” moment with regards to building their own, finally stable, government.

Predictions

Given last week’s stellar performance, I decided I should do a repeat this week. Here goes…

Saturday-

Cardinals at Saints: I’m going to get myself in trouble by saying this, but that never stopped me from saying things before. The hardest part of this trip for the Cards will be going from playing the Sunday late game to the Saturday early game. The Cards are coming off an emotional win; the Saints were off last week after a lackluster finish. Cardinals, 31-17.

Ravens at Colts: Forget about their meeting earlier this year. The Ravens will be pumped for this one. Well, except for Joe Flacco, whose Ricky Dobbs-like passing line against the Patriots won’t cut it against a defense that can also stop the run. Colts, 38-24

Sunday-

Cowboys at Vikings: This one’s a tough call. The Cowboys looked good dismantling the Eagles, but the Vikings are strong. Now that the monkey is off their backs, will the Cowboys stay motivated? Vikings, 28-24.

Jets at Chargers: If any team is wearing the monkey now, it would be the Chargers. They easily beat the Jets on paper. But can they beat such a scrappy team on the field in these playoffs? Jets, 21-17.

Upcoming-

Harry Reid: He’s under fire from Republicans over his racially insensitive comments, and he’s under fire from voters at home. Will he step down, or won’t he? If he was Republican, members of his party would be insisting on it. Democrats have proven less interested in policing themselves. He won’t step down, but he won’t be reelected.

Massachusetts Senate special election: For a special election in a Democrat stronghold like Massachusetts, why is a relatively-popular Martha Coakley having such trouble closing the deal over Scott Brown? This seems to be as much about Obamacare as it is about party identification. If that’s the case, the outcome of this race could have serious implications for the Democrats. Either way, the mere fact that Brown is competitive should make them reconsider their agenda. The best case for Dems is for Brown to win, for Obamacare to stagnate in a Senate filibuster, then try to pin Republicans as obstructionist in November. If Coakley wins and Obamacare passes, the public antipathy that is being felt even in Massachusetts will be unleashed nationwide, and not just at the federal level. As a bonus, we may get to watch this race again in two years, when the seat is in its regular election cycle. This one’s too close to call.

Conan O’Brien at NBC: He’s gone.

We’ll revisit these predictions later, unless Conan gets bumped into my time slot.

Mark McGwire: Role Model?

You read that right. Mark McGwire, who finally today admitted what everybody already knew- that he had taken performance enhancing drugs during his playing days- could actually serve as a role model through his experience. No, not for the millions of kids who idolized him during his larger-than-life (literally) heyday. The object lesson here is for one man only: Harry Reid.

Neither man, through their recent headline-making scandals, has offered what integrity would allow to be called an honest apology. Their sorrow seems to be more from being caught than for their actions. McGwire’s apology, however insincere, at least sounded remorseful, and he is willing to accept the consequences of his actions. Reid’s apology shows no hint of remorse, no sign of sincerity, and no desire to accept any consequences.

For his admission, if not his remorse, the embattled slugger has opened the door to receiving the forgiveness- albeit grudging- of his fans and the baseball community, and possibly reviving his chances of enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Reid, on the other hand, has only opened himself and his party up to renewed enmity from the electorate, chiefly those red-faced Nevadans who are eager to remove him, like an albatross, from around their necks.

Flotsam And Jetsam

Random stuff:

– So I got half of my NFL playoff predictions right. Well, it was only 25%, but part of the reason I picked the Packers was because I figured it was the best way to assure a Cardinals’ victory, so I’m counting that one. I’ll have next weekend’s predictions later this week.

– It sounds like Harry Reid’s words may come back to haunt him. Of course, the great outcry from the right isn’t over the words, but the double-standard. Both are equally outrageous, though I believe Trent Lott was forced out for something much less explicitly racist.

– Some things are better left alone. NBC has seen the error of its ways- at least in its programming- and are trying to quietly shoehorn Jay Leno back into his old time slot. It seems someone realized that not only is Conan O’Brien not funny (something I could have told them years ago), but David Letterman has lost some viewers since his jokes have gone more partisanly political. Leno is the only way to bring NBC’s ratings back up to the Mendoza line.

– After work and football today, I watched Border Wars on NatGeo. It highlights a part of our national security that is often overlooked, overworked, and underappreciated. It also seems to be focusing largely on the Nogales area, so I’ve had the added bonus of trying to figure out the specific locations involved.