What Happened?

Conservatives living outside Arizona are wondering what happened in our Republican primaries yesterday. John McCain, the GOP’s favorite intraparty target, survived his toughest primary campaign (outside of the 2000 Presidential race) rather handily. In this decidedly favorable year for conservatives, former Congressman JD Hayworth could have- and maybe should have- sent McCain into an “early” retirement, but McCain easily won with over 50% of the vote and a double-digit margin over nearest challenger Hayworth. So… what happened? Let’s take a look…

1. Incumbents were vulnerable… sort of. In spite of some other high-profile Senate upsets, McCain managed to hang on to his job (yes, I know there’s still the general election, but we’ll get into why that’s unimportant later). That trend held true to an extent in Arizona’s major elections. Gov. Brewer is the main exception, since she ran virtually unopposed after her popularity soared on the strength of her advocacy of SB1070 and her main challengers dropped out of the race. The races in CD1, CD8, and Treasurer had no Republican incumbents running, but the presumed establishment insiders were defeated by non-career politicians (Dr. Paul Gosar, Jesse Kelly, and Doug Ducey). In fact, this trend may have continued in CD3′s crowded primary. Ben Quayle should have been tagged as the consummate insider, but the media’s portrayal of him as a political newbie (save for the name) probably worked in his favor. So, how did this work in McCain’s favor? Hayworth never effectively established himself as the “outsider” during the campaign, and the McCain campaign focused heavily on painting Hayworth as an “insider”.

2. In the less familiar offices, voters went with familiar candidates. The trend against incumbents went only so far. Most state legislators running for reelection are still running. In the State Superintendent’s race, the most familiar name, state Sen. John Huppenthal, stood out, as did former State Sen. Brenda Burns and Corporation Commissioner Gary Pierce in the Corporation Commission race. For that small percentage of Arizona voters with only a passing interest in the McCain/Hayworth race, McCain was the familiar name.

3. Issues mattered… Gov. Brewer found this out after signing SB1070. As strong as Hayworth was on the border, McCain not only supported the measure, but he stood up for Arizona in Washington against the Justice Department’s involvement in the ensuing lawsuit. It wasn’t a drastic pull to the right, but it didn’t have to be. However, if he hadn’t made those stands, it would have been a much closer race, and Hayworth might have upended him. The bigger issue, though, may have been government spending. Hayworth was part of the Republican Congress that spent its way into the minority (and was a casualty in the 2006 elections). McCain, though part of that same Congress, has at least been historically outspoken against government waste.

4. …but so does image. Here’s where we get to the race that may never end. The primary battle between Andrew Thomas and Tom Horne for Attorney General has, as I write this, Horne up by 433 votes out of over 475,000. In a conservatives’ year, Thomas should have been the easy winner, but Horne had two things going for him. As State Superintendent, Horne did go after school districts that enrolled children in this country illegally as residents, giving him a degree of credibility in one of the major issues this cycle. More importantly, Thomas has developed a reputation (whether it’s deserved or not) of being petty and vindictive as Maricopa County Attorney, and this race seemed to have mirrored his 2002 race where he emerged not as the victor, but as the least-bruised in the Republican primary… and was soundly defeated by gubernatorial wannabe Terry Goddard. Likewise, Hayworth’s campaign went too negative too early- not that McCain didn’t go negative, but it was later in the contest when McCain could use it to turn a 5-point-and-closing lead into a 10-plus-point walkaway. I think- between McCain’s attacks and Hayworth’s self-inflicted wounds- this is what hurt Hayworth the most.

Now, about that general election… forget it. McCain has generally done better in general elections than in contested primaries. His challenger, former Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman, may eventually buy his way into a higher office (his family has lots of money, some of which Rodney managed somehow not to waste), but not this year. His record on the City Council here was… well, if there was anything notable, I’d mention it (and I should know, since I’m one of his former constituents). If you’re looking for his achievements, note that his resume includes being the Vice-Mayor and stop there, since that office rotates on an annual basis among the six City Council members. If he’d done something worthwhile, he wouldn’t have to highlight a largely ceremonial title.

So, McCain is practically reelected. Do Arizonans deserve better? Probably. But, until McCain retires, Barry Goldwater is resurrected, or a conservative candidate can successfully mount a primary challenge without going into the mud early, it probably won’t happen.

STRIKE!

Looks like I went bowling with my crystal ball again…

In my last post, I predicted that the ruling against much (but not all) of SB1070 would result in more states looking to replicate at least the allowed portions of Arizona’s law- while using the judge’s ruling to stake out a clearly defined path to their own versions of the law. 

First, Florida Attorney General (and gubernatorial candidate) Bill McCollum announces he’d like an immigration law tougher than Arizona’s. Then, Virginia started moving on a similar law after an illegal immigrant killed a nun. Now, this article shows that many other states are seeking similar laws.

There’s still no word on whether or not the federal government is interested in taking up similar legislation…

Mosque-erade

My two cents on the Manhattan mosque controversy:

President Obama stepped in it by endorsing the project, and he owns any backlash from that endorsement, including the responsibility for the “misinformation campaign” that has restarted over his citizenship and his religious leanings. Mostly, though, he emphasized his disconnect with the general American populace.

Nancy Pelosi wasn’t content to just step in it. She took a great big swan-dive and wallowed around in it for a while. Her initial comment about rooting out the funding for the opposition wasn’t tempered by her comment about *maybe* also checking out the funding behind the mosque itself. But, I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt: if anybody is funding the opposition to the mosque, I’ll take some…

As for the mosque itself, all I can say is dumb, dumb, dumb. For a religion that has lagging public relations due to its seeming tolerance of its terrorist extremists, the one thing it could have done right was to immediately recognize the implications of building right near the site of one of Islam’s most infamous moments and reconsider the wisdom of building there. The failure to do so implicates those in charge of the project as insensitive at best, and complicit at worst. Either way, it obfuscates the perception of Islam as a “religion of peace.”